General situation of acrylic acid industry development in China

Product introduction

Acrylic acid English name Acrylic acid, according to its different purity can be divided into esterification grade acrylic acid, polymerization grade acrylic acid, high purity acrylic acid, different purity of acrylic acid its use has certain differences. Esterified grade acrylic acid is mainly used in the production of methyl acrylate, ethyl ester, butyl ester, 2-ethylhexyl ester (that is, isooctyl acrylate) and other acrylate products; Polymerization grade acrylic acid is mainly used for the production of polymerization acrylic acid, copolymerization, homopolymerization, polyacrylate products; High purity acrylic acid is purified from esterified grade acrylic acid, which is mainly used in the production of super absorbent resin (SAP), water treatment agent and washing aid. Acrylic acid in this paper refers to esterified grade acrylic acid.

Production technology

At present, the mainstream acrylic acid production process is propylene oxidation. The propylene oxidation method is divided into one step method and two step method, which is a method developed in the 1960s, and the production capacity of the new (expanded) industrial production equipment built after the 1980s has accounted for about 95% of the propylene two-step oxidation method. Propylene two-step oxidation method is in the presence of composite metal oxide catalyst, propylene is oxidized by air to produce acrolein, and then further catalyzed oxidation to acrylic acid. At present, the propylene two-step oxidation method technology used in the world's industrial production is mainly Japanese catalyst, Mitsubishi Petrochemical of Japan and BASF of Germany and other companies.

Domestic supply and demand analysis

China's acrylic acid and ester industry started in the 1950s, large-scale industrialization began in the 1970s, Beijing Oriental Chemical factory from the Japanese catalyst chemical company introduced acrylic acid and ester complete sets of equipment, after the expansion of the formation of 8/80,000 tons/year acrylic acid and various acrylates production capacity. In the 1990s, Jilin Chemical Industry Company and Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical Acrylic Acid Plant (renamed Shanghai Huayi Acrylic Acid Co., LTD in 2003) respectively introduced acrylic acid and its ester technology and production equipment from Japan's Mitsubishi Petrochemical (now owned by Mitsubishi Chemical). Acrylic acid and acrylic acid ester production plants of 2.7/30,000 tons/year and 3/35,000 tons/year respectively were built by propylene two-step oxidation process. After 2005, China's acrylic acid industry has developed rapidly, and production capacity has increased rapidly.

In 2022, China's acrylic acid production capacity reached 3.9 million tons/year, the output of 2.97 million tons, and the average operating rate of the device was 76.2%. Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co., LTD., Taixing Shengke Chemical Co., LTD., Guangxi Huayi New Materials Co., LTD., Yangzi Petrochemical - BASF Co., LTD., Formosa Acrylic (Ningbo) Co., LTD., Shanghai Huayi Acrylic Acid is China's top six acrylic acid production enterprises, the above six enterprises have a total capacity of 2.53 million tons/year. It accounts for about 65% of the total capacity of acrylic acid in China. In addition, China has a number of new and expanded acrylic acid projects, such as Wanhua Chemical in Shandong Yantai and Fujian Fuzhou PDH and downstream projects, BASF Zhanjiang integrated base project, Gulei petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical and other projects are layout construction acrylic acid and ester. It is expected that by 2027, China's acrylic acid production capacity will reach 5.2 million tons/year, the output of about 3.5 million tons; The annual growth rate of annual production capacity and output from 2022 to 2027 will be 5.9% and 3.3% respectively.

In 2022, the apparent consumption of acrylic acid in China is 2.877 million tons, and the specific consumption structure is: acrylic ester accounted for 58.0%, SAP accounted for 27.0%, water reducing agent accounted for 10%, and other consumption areas accounted for 5%. With the change of China's demographic structure and parenting concept, it is expected that the demand for SAP will grow rapidly in the next few years, and the demand for acrylic acid esters, water-based coatings and adhesives will also maintain a rapid growth rate. It is expected that in 2027, the apparent demand for acrylic acid in China will reach about 3.27 million tons, and the average annual growth rate of the apparent demand from 2022 to 2027 will be 2.6%.

Domestic price analysis

At the beginning of 2018, the price of acrylic acid in China was 7600 yuan/ton, and then showed an upward trend of shock, to the highest point of 10200 yuan/ton in November of the year, and then the price gradually fell, and the annual average price was 8360 yuan/ton. From 2019 to 2020, the price of acrylic acid in China showed a downward trend, and the average annual price of two years was 7,500 yuan/ton and 7070 yuan/ton, respectively. In 2021, the price of acrylic acid in China has climbed all the way, the main reasons include the demand for acrylic acid in the downstream market at home and abroad, and the main device of some acrylic acid manufacturers in foreign countries caused by force majeure factors to stop, and the demand procurement surface has been transferred to China, and the average price in 2021 is 12040 yuan/ton. At the beginning of 2022, the price rose slightly, the price reached the highest point of 15,800 yuan/ton in mid-February, and then continued to decline, and the price dropped to 6,550 yuan/ton at the end of the year, and the annual average price was 12,450 yuan/ton.

The price of acrylic acid is mainly affected by the price of propylene, and is also affected by the price of crude oil. Given the current low operating rates, it is unlikely that demand will outstrip supply in the future. It is expected that the price of acrylic acid will still be between 6000 and 10000 yuan/ton in the next few years. The price trend of acrylic acid in China from 2018 to 2022 is shown in Figure 1.

Acrylic acid is the current acrylic downstream products have more development prospects, higher added value, rapid development of products, acrylic acid market demand growth over the years, the downstream use of a wide range of potential for development, 2017 to 2022 China's apparent consumption of acrylic acid average annual growth rate of 6.5%. From the regional point of view, China's acrylic acid production capacity is mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas. From the perspective of industrial policy, acrylic acid is an important raw material for water-based coatings, inks, adhesives, highly absorbent resins, high-end butyl acrylate and high-end octyl acrylate products that China encourages the development of. From the market point of view, it is expected that in the next 5 years, China's downstream products such as coatings, adhesives, highly absorbent resins, general and special acrylates will still have strong market expectations, and high-end new material products such as vinyl acrylic copolymers and acrylic rubber will also steadily develop, so acrylic acid will still have a good market space. From the perspective of the whole industry chain, in order to maximize the value of the industry chain, extending to the downstream acrylic new materials and special chemicals industry is conducive to the formation of an integrated development pattern, driving the development of downstream industries at the same time, can further enhance industrial competitiveness and risk resistance.